We may have dodged the bullet last week, but there’s no denying that Lay on Hands is clearly in Blizz’s crosshairs. Hell, Pallies in general are. Damocles’ nerfbat is dangling precipitously above our heads.

Ghostcrawler recently asserted in a thread on the forums that “for most of the other hybrids, picking a role in a fight is much more of a commitment.” And approvingly quoted a poster who said that Paladins differ from other hybrids in that our healing capabilities are much more baseline.

Fair enough, but this peek into GC’s thought process bodes ill for our future situation. It appears that the developers intend to differentiate Paladins a lot more based on what spec they are. That is,

if you are up against a Holy paladin, you should know that one of your greatest challenges should be dealing with their capacity to heal. If you are up against a Prot paladin, you should be concerned with their capacity to take hits. If you are up against a Ret paladin, you should be concerned with how much damage they should deal. You should not, generally, be nearly as concerend [sic] about the Prot’s ability to self-heal or the Ret’s ability to tank you.

What does this mean for us? For starters: LoH doesn’t have a very bright future ahead of it. Because it is such a massive heal, it’ll probably be dumped deep into the Holy tree, much like Spiritual Attunement was back in 3.1. Our spellpower might be further nerfed so our off-healing capabilities can’t even begin to compare with Holy’s, and our damage dealing will surely be dealt a body blow for a nice double whammy of neutering Prot pvp and pve tps in one fell swoop.

Concerning my first assumption, to drop another quote bomb, GC went on to explain that they don’t consider the long cooldown on the ability (or the inability for it to be used in Arena is a balancing factor). Rather,

We don’t think “Sure I can heal myself for 25,000+ health as a dps spec or 50,000+ health as a tank, but not very often,” is balanced. Abilities can be unbalanced even if overall a character is not.

Gulp. Notice he specifically invalidated LoH for Ret and Prot in that example? Nice knowing you, old friend. Tell the Holy Tree we said hi.

The future of Paladins is probably this: Holy will have access to impressive self-heals (including LoH) but have little damage output, Prot will be a damage sponge but unable to kill anything or heal itself (basically, just slowly die in pvp), and Ret will be a paper tiger (good luck getting them to reverse the burst nerfs once you guys are mortal).

Normally, I wouldn’t mind this “recalibration” of the specs, but like most balancing matters, Blizzard will fail at the follow through. They have a bad habit of nerfing or buffing X to make up for Y, and then when they finally remove Y as a balancing factor, they don’t put X back to where it used to be. When Prot doesn’t have a third “cooldown” anymore, once LoH is gone, what is going to be the balancing factor to remove disparities?

Side question: does Blizzard even consider LoH a tanking cooldown? Admittedly, the reason I keep putting the word “cooldown” in scare quotes is because the classification is scurrilous at best, considering LoH is used more as a panicky free-heal and usually contributes to overhealing more than anything concrete. Still, the question is, do they factor its existence into the equation at all for us?

It’d be nice to get an answer on that.

To return to my previous point, another example: Blizz decided Ret was too bursty, which rubbed up against their survivability, and made it so their damage ramped up (expecting that they were going to live that much longer, so a ramp-up was justifiable). If Ret’s survivability craters, are they going to shift back to a bursty dps model? Of course not.

If I seem overly pessimistic, it’s because I am (pessimism is a bad habit of mine). Blizzard has a knack for going overboard, and I can just see them “recalibrating” our class and badly handicapping us as a result.

I’ve seen a really dopey idea being discussed in certian quarters regarding how to spec when 3.1 drops. We only have one real “oh shite” cooldown to use, the argument goes, so the solution suggested is to create a new one with the Improved Lay on Hands talent. The spec to make such a “cooldown” is this.

This is a bad spec, don’t do it.

Here’s why: as a tank you have two primary jobs. One is to stay alive as long as possible, and the other is to generate enough threat to keep the mob on you. Just out of curiosity, how does spending valuable talent points on increasing your heals by 12% help either of those?

The ultimate goal with this silly idea is to turn Lay on Hands into an 11 minute (with the new glyph) +50% armor value boost.

But, as always, the devil in the details, and the details bear out that Imp LoH isn’t as great as it seems.

To use myself as an example, I have 23391 armor, which provides 60.6% damage reduction. Physical damage reduction. Keep that in mind, the word physical here is key.

If I popped Imp LoH I would boost my armor to 35086, and my damage reduction would jump to 69.7%. A gain of 9.1% damage reduction. And even if you had more armor, damage reduction from armor is capped at 75%.

Once again though, this is all physical damage reduction. Say what you want about Pallies, we are not hurting in the physical damage reduction department. What’s primarily keeping us from being ideal Sarth 3d tanks is magical damage, which we are just about defenseless against.

All this spec does is saddle us with unnecessary talents for a weak “cooldown” that doesn’t even help where we hurt the most.

I want a new cooldown as much as the next guy. Gimping ourselves is not the way to do it.